Fake Capitalism

The free trade merchants have existed for all the centuries in the history of mankind. But the capitalism that Adam Smith has defined in his famous book (the wealth of nations, 1776) with some features and specific characteristics is already dead.The Adam Smith capitalism system was defined to promote better production, full competition, and create equal opportunities. Todays, none of these features are alive. The equal opportunities and healthy competitions are declining. The gap between poor and rich is widening. The social, economic, educational, and political inequalities are growing. The business ethics are diminishing and CEOs only mission is to   maximize the investors' wealth regardless of the well-being of consumers and workers.As Marx argued in the first volume of his book named “Das Kapital” Published in 1867, The capitalism will not be a stable economic system because it is based on private profit with no boundaries. Capitalists will become increasingly powerful and control all the means of production while working people will become increasingly poor and fall into poverty.Although Marx did not say when this will happen, but some analysts believe that the true capitalism died in 1929 when the great depression happened. Since then the western economic system has changed and the law of supply & demand cannot work effectively and freely anymore. The mischiefs of human nature which is created by their greed does not let the societies to live with equal opportunities. Today a fake capitalism is in place and control the world economy.These days, the big corporations have monopolized the world economy. Big companies have ruined the healthy competition, restricting the freedom. Facebook, Google, Amazon are the tech gate keepers. Big Banks, pharmaceutical companies, airlines have made the distribution of power unequal. It is said that 40% of the US airports belong to one airline. This list can go on and on.What we call capitalism does not offer any kind of equality today. From economy to social and political opportunities, all are in favor of the wealthy people and the working and middle class all around the developed societies are feeling injustice. This situation can not last forever.
On the other side, many analysts believe that another crisis is on its way due to many reasons such as unsolved causes of 2007 crisis, US deregulations and protectionism policies, and increasing global debts to 1.7 times more than 2007. All developed countries have been taking expansionary monetary policies since January 2019 and starting to cut their interest rates to avoid another crisis.So, let’s pray that the coming financial crisis do not ignite a big social unrest in the western world, which if it happens, the costs and consequences would be so huge and undefinable to the extent that the world will witness a new world order.Mahmoud Gonabadi, June 12, 2019

Dare not raise the interest rates

Dare not raise the interest rates

“Undetected Shadow banking has been in place all around the world since the crisis 2007 and has loaded the whole world including China with the low rates loans. Today no developed country dare raises its rate much in fear of market crash. However how long could the countries keep their rates unchanged?” MG. Nov. 22, 2018

Apparently, the major world economies not only have dared not to raise their interest rates but also have decided to adopt the expanding and accommodating monetary policies. It is not a big surprise if later in 2019 they start reducing the rates back toward 0.5%. In the first week of 2019, China decreased its "required bank reserves" to stimulate the economy in response to its economic slowdown. The US federal reserve bank also said that the bank might not raise the rate in 2019 and would adjust the process of its balance sheet normalization.

On Thursday January 3th, China reduced its “bank reserve” requirements rate from 17% to 14% which was an aggressive step toward easing the monetary policies. On Friday January 4th, 2019, few surprising economic indicators were published which supported the US FED policy announcement that the rate might not be raised in 2019 and the bank balance sheet normalization process would be adjusted

These measures by China and US were strongly positive for the market and changed the global equities markets direction to positive trends. Both US and China central banks actions and announcements in the first week of 2019 had a big positive impact on the equities market on Friday Jan. 04. They have also started the trade talks since January 7, 2019 which is another positive sign for the global equities markets.

Now the question is that how long these bullish trends will last? The global equity prices have been declining in the second half of 2018 drastically which is far from a simple correction. The current global economy is not healthy at all and loaded with huge debts. The interconnected global financial system is not ready to protect itself against any fraudulent acts, social movements, and hackers attack.

these easing and expanding policies are only buying time and opportunity for the policy makers to address and solve the main issues that the financial system is facing. Unless the trade war is stopped.  the global financial system is reformed, and the global debts which have spread out among governments, corporations and people all around the world is addressed.

This positive market trends will not last long and bounce back to a speedy decreasing trend again and continue to fall as a leading indicator of the coming financial crisis. As Mr. Gordon Brown, the UK Prime minister during the last crisis is saying: “whatever created the 2007 crisis is not gone away and it will create another crisis soon. today’s leaderless world is sleep walking toward a huge economic depression”. 

Mahmoud Gonabadi. Jan 12, 2019

Financial crisis, the repeating cycles in capitalism.

Is capitalism falling?

(2)

“whatever created the 2007 crisis is not gone away and it will create another crisis soon. today’s leaderless world is sleep walking toward a huge economic depression”.  Gordon Brown. UK PM (2007-2010)

There have been an increasing number of economists, former FED chairs and authorities, experts and global financial institutions that are all warning of another huge financial crisis in the recent months. They believe that the state of the world economy is very fragile due to the rising presence of few well-known destructive facts and clues that caused the 2007 crisis such as deregulated financial market, inflated asset prices, high volume of low rate loans. Besides, the US protectionist policies and the emerging populist leaders in Europe who are promoting the nationalism have increased the uncertainties about the future of the global economy and order. Unfortunately, the global fragile economy and the protectionism movements together have a synergic power that potentially could cause a huge financial crisis and long-lasting global depression that ends the US capitalism leadership and devaluates the dollar as a world reserve currency. Who knows maybe the global economy will choose another leader when the world gains back its economic order.

Trade war & Protectionism

Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister of UK during the financial crisis (June 2007 to May 2010) presented a well analysis in September 2018 and declared strongly that “whatever created the 2007 crisis is not gone away and it will create another crisis soon”. He says, “today’s leaderless world is sleep walking toward a huge economic depression”. As the UK prime minister running the country during the crisis, he was well informed about the main roots to that crisis and today he is saying nothing has been done to address the problems that created the last crisis and we should expect for worst of all crisis.

He says if the global economy goes down, the world can not get together like 2007 due to the current protectionism movements in the world. One of the main causes that the great depression lasted very long was that the big economies were not working together. Prime minister Gordon Brown in his analytical presentation says that it is difficult to guess what would trigger the next crisis which is imminent. But the world economy is in the second part of economy cycle meaning the growth is going to decrease for sure.

Deregulated financial market

Since January 2017, the President Trump economists have been actively revoking many regulations. The Dodd Frank Act which was the key in keeping the financial institutions safe and sustainable is cut to many pieces and the Volker rule has been substantially changed and neutralized. Now the small banks can do both investment and commercial banking. The capital requirements, mandatory reporting, and pressure tests are all reduced to a point that are not able to do what they were designed for.

Many are concerned that once again the financial institutions have a chance to exploit and pollute the market in the absence of the monitoring and necessary regulation to keep the bankers honest. Nowadays, the US financial system is becoming less regulated, monitored, less transparent, and more speculative and risky market which is susceptible to any economy distress and political/social challenge. The Former Fed Chair, Dr. Janet Yellen said on Wednesday December 19, that she was worried about the next financial crisis. She said that the corporate debts had been growing and the financial safeguard’s such as Dodd Frank Act that were put in place after the 2007 crisis were being reversed which is worrisome.

the global debt, 1.6 times more than 2007

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in October 2018 against another financial crisis that threatens the world economy. Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s head says the global debt, in both the public and private sectors, has increased by more than 60% in the last ten years. Currently the total amount of global debts is estimated to be between 182 to 220 Trillion dollars. 1.6 times more than the global debts in 2007.

The IMF annual report says that there is a list of concerns over the world economy that one might think it is going to be a dead end for the capitalism. While the global financial system needs restructuring more than ever, the US government is aggressively removing the rules that were made to keep the financial institutions honest and in control. It is said that the Dodd Frank Act has been cut to thousand pieces. 

Undetected Shadow banking

IMF says that the shadow banking operations have loaded the whole world with low interest rate loans by shadow bankers during the last ten years. Today many governments, corporations and consumers all around the world including Asian developing countries and China are in deep debts. These loans are mostly denominated in US dollars and any dollar strength or rate increase has a negative impact on the global markets and developing economies. The Shadow bankers have loaded the Chinese corporations and consumers with high volume unqualified debts, and china has failed to control these financial institutions.

Stock market is a leading indicator

The stock market is an important leading indicator that reflects the future trend of the economy. These markets have been losing the ground since September and all three major American indexes have lost around 20 percent of their value meaning the market is already in recession mode and all financial asset prices have lost their value and deflated which has a big negative impact on the GDP if continues.

The Goldman’s derivatives strategist John Marshall published an article in October and said that there have been increasing evidences that the market is going toward another crisis. professional investors reducing their positions and /or getting out of the market, the bond buyers have been increasing, the spreads are increasing, and the corporations are not borrowing any more.

So, the stock markets which are always the leading indicators of the future economy have been also signaling us about the coming economy slow down. Afterall the growing global debts have initiated a paradox with nationalism movements and have created a non-sustainable world economy in the less regulated market.

Conclusions.

The capitalism is trapped in a repeating periodical crisis cycle for the last one hundred years with similar causes or symptoms such as high debts, deregulations, speedy growth, high level of liquidity, Inflated assets, and low inflation. Unfortunately, these causes are all present today in the world economies and will make another financial crisis and long-lasting economic depression sooner rather later.

the amount of the global debts (Governments, corporations, consumers) is 1.6 times more than 2007. Undetected Shadow banking has been in place all around the world since the crisis 2007 and has loaded the whole world including China with the low rates loans. Today no developed country dare raises its rate much in fear of market crash. However how long could the countries keep their rates unchanged. If they don’t raise their rates, then the inflation starts getting out of control because of the tons of potential liquidity in the whole world market. So, in order to absorb these liquidities and control the inflation without raising the rates, they have been deregulating the financial markets to promote the investment (like 2004-2006) and again ignoring the human greed.

The financial hurricane is coming back for sure. but the timing depends on the monetary policies and decisions that will be made by the developed economies. If China and US stop the trade war and start negotiating, and/or if the US ,the European and developed Asian countries keep their rates unchanged, then the markets will perform better for a while , but the inflation will rise and ultimately the rates must be raised which in that case, the market falls and another financial crisis will be imposed on people.

In my opinion the interest rate is the starting key to this crisis. If it starts going up, the financial markets and the global economy will start going down. So, it should be handled very cautiously, otherwise they will have to reverse it down like 2006.

However, it is not all bad news. It is bad for those who are not aware of it. If we become aware of the coming market fall, we can take the best financial advantage out of it. there are very famous and successful investors in the history that have made millions in these kinds of situation. Some cash out and wait for the market to hit the bottoms and then buy very cheap as Warren Buffet did it in 1970s. Some hedge fund managers make millions of dollars by investing in alternative financial products.

You do not have to be super smart to take advantage of the coming crisis. Naturally the asset prices are going to deflate and decline very much and each of us could make some good investment in this process and divert threats to opportunities.

Thanks. Mahmoud Gonabadi

Speech Notes: Nov 22^nd. 2018. North Vancouver

Financial crisis, the repeating cycles in capitalism.

Is capitalism falling?

(1)

Studying the history of fiscal and monetary policies and the role of economists who created and enforced these policies since the first world war have been an interesting area of my studies during the last 12 years.

There have been numerous researches about the 2007 financial crisis among which many discuss about the similar state of the economy in the years prior to 1929 and 2007 crises. The speedy growth, excess liquidity, low inflation, high speculation, Lack of regulations, and less transparency were all visibly present in the years before these two huge crises.

Are we going to experience another financial crisis in near future? Are the financial crises the essential cycles for capitalism to Survive?

Nowadays, the state of the US economy and the monetary policies are again like the pre-crisis era of the yrs. 1929, and 2007. Besides, the danger of a global trade war, protectionism in Europe and slowing economy in China are also threatening the global economy and adding to the likelihood of another huge financial crisis in the early future.

Studying the history of these crisis and the role of the government policies, one could easily conclude that the root causes to these financial crises cycle have always been the government fiscal and monetary policies that drive the economy in the road of capitalism.

prior to any crisis there is a period when the market and economy go mad and behave recklessly with less transparency and supervision. In other words, long before a crisis happens, there are similar feeding factors that show up vividly and tell us that a new crisis is coming, but the human greed does not let us remember the past and we go through the same road again and again.

There has been a nonstop battle between the two different economy schools of thought in the western world since the great depression in 1929. One inflates the economy and repeal and decrease the rules and regulations, and the other deflates the economy with more regulations and supervisions.

The classic school or the free market economists generally believe that the market is smart and could regulate itself and decides when, how, what to produce. They believe that the markets do not need much of rules and regulations imposed by the governments. On the contrary, the other school or” Neo- Keynesians” believe the government mild intervention is necessary to protect the public, maintain the fairness, employment and prevent the market failure.

Mr. Greenspan as a Neo-classical capitalist served for 18.5 years (1987-2006). He and his colleagues such as Dr. Milton Friedman kept the interest rate low for 16 years and deregulated the financial and credit markets to be able to absorb all the liquidities flowing into US economy from wealthy oil countries and emerging Asian markets. They did not raise the wages and salaries due to existing excess labor coming from the eastern Europe.

In 2004, while supporting the President Bush tax cuts, Mr. Greenspan also started raising the interest rates slowly but continuously in every policy announcement from June 2004 to January 2006 meaning that the FED and monetarists economist were concerned and aware of excess liquidity and inflated credit markets. He raised the interest rate 14 times in his last 18 months of service from 1% to 4.5% until his term was finished in Jan 2006.

In February 2006 Dr. Bernanke became the US FED chair and continued the raising rate policy to cool down the housing market. But after three raise and when the interest rate stood at 5.25%, the market could not stand it anymore and the FED stopped raising the rate to avoid a total economy melt down. Too little too late. The new sophisticated financial products and services in a deregulated market had already spread out and polluted the Financial Industry during the last 19 years of free market economy.

Monetarists such as Dr. Greenspan kept the interest rate low, deregulated the financial market for 19 years and revoked many effective rules such as the Glass Steagall Act which was designed to prevent the bad banking practiced. Is the current state of economy like the years prior to 2007 crisis? Yes, precisely.

In February 2006, Ben Bernanke, a Neo- Keynesian economist became the new FED chair. His views were totally different from Dr. Greenspan. He Believed that the government must be supervising the economy and have an active role in guiding the economy toward a moderate growth, full employment and controlled inflation.

Dr. Bernanke had been studying and writing about all aspects of the 1929 depression for many years and was probably the best man to become the chair of FED and save the US and global financial systems skillfully. His findings about the great depression helped him to stop the crisis from spreading out to the whole economy.

He and his Keynesian colleagues such as Dr. Janet Yellen, Volker, Dodd Frank and other members of the FOMC committee proactively responded and reduced the market stress and did not let the crisis effect the other sectors of economy. Their transparent policies and plans worked well; they initiated a transparent interest rate policy announcement to avoid any market surprises and applied some Innovative rules and regulations while helping the financial institutions to survive and regain their power through initiatives such as the quantitative easing programs. They also introduced some new regulations such as Dodd Frank act and Volker rules to keep the financial institutions under systematic control in terms of their sustainability and compliance.

The neo Keynesians run the economy for twelve years and delivered it to the monetarist economists that are working for president trump at the present time. Although Dr. Yellen stayed until January February 2018, but the neo classics have been running the economy since 2017 with the same agenda to unleash the financial institutions to lend, borrow, and invest speculatively for themselves and others which reminds us of the same scenario that was played in the years prior to the 1929 and 2007 financial crisis. Isn’t it an avoidable repeating scenario? Maybe not. Is Capitalism dying? Maybe.

Speech. Feb. 2018 in North Vancouver.

To be continued.

Mahmoud Gonabadi

Dec 21, 2018

“Durable Competitive Advantage”, Companies’ Hidden Wealth

Durable Competitive Advantage (DCA) is certainly a hidden wealth and a valuable quality for any company to possess. Mr. Warren Buffet company selection process is based on this concept through which he identifies and isolates these companies and invest in them when their prices are falling and historically cheap.

Mr. Buffet selects the companies which have a durable competitive advantage in the market. This is the main pillar of his investment wisdom. Nowadays, investors are applying a growing number of excellent investment methodologies and great hedging strategies to enhance their investment return and manage their risk. But investing strictly in the companies which possess “DCA” in the market when their share prices are falling is a profitable investment strategy and works forever in every market around the globe.

This approach cleverly selects the best companies to invest at the time when their share prices are falling. Mr. Buffet is acting on his teacher advice “Ben Graham” who believed that there was not such a thing as good or bad stock. a share is either expensive or cheap and "value-investing" is all about buying the undervalued stocks.

However, competitive advantage must be durable and last for many years as Coca-Cola or Hershey has been selling the same products for the last half a century. Their products have not changed and are not expected to change in the future because they own a piece of the consumer’s mind. These companies could grow without spending large sums of capital for the machinery and/or R&D to stay competitive. Warren says investing in the “low- cost” producers with durable competitive advantage are profitable and safe if one buys them in the bear market.

Warren believes that investors should not invest based on the belief that a company is going to grow and change the market. Instead, they should focus on the companies with “low cost durable competitive advantage”. He targets the low-cost companies that produce unique products or services that people need them repeatedly. Brand names, fast foods, advertising, cleaning, credit cards, big retailers’ industries are among them.

A brand name or regional monopoly is considered a competitive advantage that enables a company to control the price of its products and services due to its monopolistic position and earn steady increasing profit. Coca-Cola, Hershey, H&R Block, Visa, Walmart, Costco are some examples of such businesses

The certainty of the outcome is the cornerstone of Mr. Buffet's philosophy. He is a “selective contrarian investment strategist who identifies and selects the companies with durable competitive advantage and then he waits for the right time to invest in them. The right time to buy for a contrarian is when the prices are falling which happens in an in a bear market, a correction or a panic sell-off during a bull market.

The investor might successfully identify many companies with "low-cost" durable competitive advantage, but he must be very cautious not invest in them unless their share prices are falling and look historically cheap.

Short sellers generally avoid these companies because of their strong business economics and take a contra Buffet approach to draw a shorting strategy. A contra approach is a two-step approach:

First, the short seller looks for the companies with Price Competitive Disadvantage in the industries such as manufacturers, airlines and so on and specifically identifies the less known companies that their products or services are not unique and not considered a certain need for the public.

And at the second step, he monitors and waits for the market and/or the identified stock prices to fall. Generally, the best time to short is the last stage of the bull market when the share prices are historically and irrationally inflated. Shorting the selected stocks solely when their prices are historically expensive is the key to the certainty of the outcome.

May 01, 2018

BPIs are warning of possible market corrections or crash in 2018

After the Second World War, the investment industry felt the need for an index to measure and quantify the “market risk “. Consequently, in 1955, Mr. Abe Cohen developed the concept of “Bullish Percent” and introduced the Bullish Percent Index (BPI). This index is designed to evaluate and measure the “market risk” and help the investors to deal with all kind of market situations. It is vastly used in the “P&F” technical analysis methodology to plan the market entries and investment strategies.

As an example, if the Bullish Percent for “S&P500” is 36%, it means only 180 (500*0.36) stocks in this index are having a buy signal in the “P&F” technical analysis system, and the 320 stocks remaining have sell signals. Scary?!

The first step to a successful investment is to evaluate the market condition. Studies have shown that three-quarters of investment risks are hidden in the general market conditions and the active industries in the market. In other words, good stock selection accounts for 25% of risk involved with our investments. So watching the BPI as a market risk indicator will definitely enhance our investment return and keep the market risk in control during the volatile markets in the coming months. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows us that the market is bullish or bearish and its extent of bearish or bullishness. So in order to appraise and measure the current market risk, let us look at the “BPI” for three US major Indices:

Dow Jones Bullish Percent

The BPI for Dow Jones Industrial Average ($BPINDU) is 30% as of today Monday, April the 2nd of 2018. It means that only 30% of the Dow Jones stocks show buy signal in “P&F” technical methodology and the remaining 70% are carrying sell signals. According to this “P&F” chart, the Dow Jones average BP has gone to Bear Confirmed signal since March 20th, and since then it has been falling without showing any sustainable strength and rebounding signs

S&P500 Bullish Percent

The S&P500 Bullish Percent ($BPSPX) is standing at 36% as of today Monday, April the 2nd of 2018. It means that only 36% of the 500 stocks in S&P maintain the buy signal in “P&F” technical methodology and the remaining 64% are carrying sell signals. According to this “P&F” chart, the S&P Bullish Percent has gone to Bear Confirmed signal since March 23rd, and since then it has been falling without showing any sign of strength and recovery.

NASDAQ Composite Bullish Percent

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ) is standing at 54% as of today Monday, April the 2nd of 2018. It means that 54% of the 2500 stocks in Nasdaq Composite show buy signal in “P&F” technical methodology and the remaining 46% are carrying sell signals. According to this “P&F” chart, the Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent has gone to Bear Confirmed signal since March 29, and since then it has been falling without showing any sustainable sign of strength and rebounding.

So when the Bullish Percent for all the three major US indexes signaling that the markets are falling, the investors should be alerted and take these bear sell signals as a serious warning of a possible crash or deep correction in the coming months. Stay Alert and good luck.

اخطار شاخص درصد صعودی (شاخص ریسک بازار)

شاخصی که ریسک بازاررا اندازه میگیرد وآشنایی با آن برای  سرمایه گذاران غیرحرفه ای جدا ضروری است . زیرا ارزش سرمایه گذاری آنها  را دربرابر سقوط و نوسانات بازاردرماههای آینده بیمه خواهد نمود.

در نیمه اول قرن بیستم و پس از جنگ دوم جهانی نیاز به یک شاخص متفاوت در بازار که بتواند بدون وزن و تعلق شرایط بازار را ارزیابی کند احساس می شد، تا اینکه در 1955 آقای کوهن مفهوم درصد صعودی را ابداع نمود و با استفاده از این مفهوم، شاخصی حاصل شد که شیوه تعامل با بازار را به روشنی دیکته می نمود و مفهومی بسیار پراهمیت و حیاتی تلقی شد. شاخصهای موجود در بازارهای سرمایه گر چه شرایط بازار را منعکس می کنند و نشان از شرایط اقتصادی و بازار دارند، اما در بسیاری مواقع نه تنها برای سرمایه گذاران پیامی ندارند، بلکه باعث ضرر و زیان او نیز گردیده اند.

شاخص های موجود در جهان، مصرف تحقیقاتی و اقتصادی دارند و نمی باید مورد استفاده سرمایه گذاران در تشخیص شرایط بازار و زمان یابی ورود و خروج از بازار قرار گیرند. شاخص درصد صعودی در 1955 برای سرمایه گذاران ابداع گردید و امروز کمتر سرمایه گذار حرفه ای است که از این شاخص بهره نگیرد. شاخص درصد صعودی به سرمایه گذار جهت می دهد که در مقابل بازار چگونه عمل نموده و با آن تقابل نماید.

اجازه دهید شیوه ساده محاسبه "درصد صعودی" را به عرض برسانم تابه ساختارواهمیت آن درشناسایی زودهنگام خطرسقوط بازار اشراف حاصل نمایید.شاخص "S&P500" را در نظربگیرید. "درصد صعودی" این شاخص امروز 31 مارس معادل  42% میباشد.این به زبان ساده بدان معنی است که 42 درصد از 500 سهم موجود درشاجص "ُS&P500" خوب و 58% بقیه بد و در سیستم تحیل نقطه و شکل "”Point & Figure” دارای سیگنال فروش هستند. این عدد همچنین اخطارمیدهد که بازار ریسکی است و اکثریت قاطع سهام بازار در تحلیل نقطه و شکل دارای سیگنال فروش هستند.

توصیه می شود سرمایه گذاران حساب شاخص "درصد صعودی" را از شاخصهای معمول بازار جدا کنند، زیرا شاخصهای بازار عملکرد یک دسته سهام خاص را نشان می دهند. شاخص درصد صعودی به سرمایه گذار جهت می دهد که در تقابل با بازار چه نوعی از استراتژی های تدافعی یا تهاجمی را اتخاذ کند. این مفهوم بهترین شاخص و اندیکاتور بازارهای سرمایه محسوب می شود.

آقای کوهن مبتکر شاخص درصد صعودی معتقد بود که شاخصهای بازار سرمایه گذاران را گمراه می کنند و هنگامیکه قیمت ها گران هستند، توصیه به خرید می کنند و در زمانی ارزانی سهام تصویری ترسناک از بازار ارائه می دهند.

شاخص "درصد صعودی" برخلاف خرد بازار و سرمایه گذار امروزی که منبعث از شاخصهای بازار است عمل می کند. سیستم تحلیل نقطه و شکل تحلیل را از شاخص درصد صعودی که تعیین کننده استراتژی ورود به بازار است، آغاز می کند. شاخص درصد صعودی سرمایه گذار را به سوی سهامی سوق می دهد که ارزش بازار آنها کمتر از ارزش ذاتی شان می باشد که از این جهت شبیه به تحلیل های بنیادی "ارزش پایه" بدنبال سهام زیر قیمت می گردد.  در روزهای آینده گزارش مهمی از وضعیت بازار و ریسک سقوط سهام را دوستان ارایه خواهم داد. با تشکر. َMarch 31, 2018

محمود گنابادی Ph. D.  , F.C.S.I 

Trade War & WTO Governance

The free world countries are becoming increasingly worried about the U.S.  protectionist policies that initiating chaos in the international trades and weakening the global institutions such as the World Trade Organization(WTO), and International Monetary Fund(IMF).

These institutions were established in the 1940s to regulate, monitor, and expand the international trades. They have governed the international trades since then and have become powerful and well settled global organizations. But President Trump’s Anti Global and “protectionism policies are challenging the governance and authority of these institutions. So, the concern about the sustainability of the current world order is increasing due to the imminent clash between institutionalized globalists and the US protectionists such as President Trump. 

US administration is talking about fair trade vs. free trade and unilaterally push for renegotiating the multilateral trade agreements such as NAFTA. It is claiming that it has been taken advantage of by almost every country during the last decades which must be stopped and compensated Although most of the analysts believe that the Trump protectionist views will not prevail, but they might also ignite a trade war and ends to chaos in the world order and hurts the consumers particularly those in the small countries.

Soon after his inauguration, President Trump withdrew from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and started talking about fair trade vs. free trade, criticizing the multilateral agreements, saying they have hurt American interests for decades and asking for bilateral agreements and renegotiation the existing agreements such as NAFTA.

On Thursday, March the first, Mr. Trump suddenly announced 25% tariff on steel and 10% on imported aluminum. This announcement was not welcomed by the US allies and some influential cabinet members. The US allies warned of a trade war. The secretaries of state and defense warned that it could endanger the US national security and his chief economic advisor “Gary Cohn “resigned in opposition to the president style of "Protectionism".

But he did not back off, and on the 8th of March, he signed an "executive order” based on which a broad tariff on imported steel and aluminum was initiated unilaterally. A controversial move that threats the world trade order and if continues it might create a deep global chaos. Canada & Mexico were exempted temporarily to see if he can get a good deal with NAFTA negotiations. The US administration also left the door open for its allies to negotiate for tariffs exemption. Apparently, he has taken the tariffs as a hostage to push for bilateral new agreements.

The World Trade Organization is the largest organization in the world with 164-member countries. Its main mission is to ensure the global trades are running smoothly and freely and all members are complying with the rules. WTO is the only authorized institution that settles the disputes between the parties in case a country violates the rules. Naturally, the "protectionism" policies tend to ignore the international trade rules monitored by the world trade organization(WTO) and unless for any reason the Trump’s " protectionism” policies stop, the WTO will have to engage and stands against the US policies and protect its member countries which will be in dispute with the US administration in the coming months.

 If the Trump's " Protectionism" model and the world "Anti Globalism" movements help the populist nationalist leaders to gain power in the coming years and if they also choose to change their trade policies and get out of the international trade treaties. Then the global institutions such as WTO and IMF will face a big governance challenge and the globalists who have been running the global economy for the last 75 years will have to compromise and let a different regime of global economy replaces the current one. But during this economic regime change, the world could reasonably expect all kind of financial and national debts and currency crises as well as economic recessions and global depression. In other words, if the current global trade order changes, the global economy will experience a period of chaos and faces different crises before the new regime of international trade is fully operational.

However, the institutionalized globalists are very powerful, and it is hard to imagine that one single country such as the US could threaten the world trade order. A coalition or group of many countries might be able to change the current world trade order, but most of the countries are satisfied with the current trade order and reluctant to change it.  

while no one could guess how far the trade disputes could go in the future, but the US trade policies surely influence all kind of financial and physical asset prices in the coming months, so we should stay alert and monitor the asset prices trends and unusual fluctuations to avoid any financial loss and take advantage of the asset price fluctuation in 2018

March 12, 2018

Mahmoud Gonabadi

Ph.D., FCSI, CIM, FMA

Fund & Wealth Manager

Central Bank & Independent Monetary Policies

Iran central bank independent of the executive branch is the key to a sustainable financial reform and enforcement of monetary policies. If Iran Central Bank (ICB) reports to the legislative branch rather than the executive branch, it will have the necessary power to enforce its rules and policies. The special interest groups are very powerful in Iran and ICB is not able to enforce its policies under its current organizational chart.

Fiscal and Monetary policies are designed to promote a healthy growing economy. But each uses different tools for achieving the same goal. Fiscal policies are focused on implementing their predefined budgets, while monetary policies are focused on predefined interest and inflation rates. Although monetary policies are basically coordinated with fiscal policies, at the same time, they should be structurally independent of each other and report to the separate branches of government to be fully effective.

To resolve the current banking crisis, we should enhance the ICB organizational position. We have to reorganize its upper organizational chart and make it an independent institution which reports to parliament or superior power. This is the main key to start a sustainable and meaningful financial reform in the country.

I have been writing and talking about the necessity of having an independent and powerful central bank for many years. A central bank which could stand against the pressure groups and implemented its rules and policies powerfully.

Fiscal policies are working to promote the economic growth and monetary policies are making sure that the growth is sustainable and healthy. While the government is spending, the central bank is monitoring and controlling the volume of money to avoid inflation/deflation.

So, if we want a healthy financial system in Iran, the first step is to correct the central bank organizational chart and let it become independent of the executive branch and start reporting to Parliament. Otherwise, the existing powerful pressure groups will make it difficult for the central bank to face the current banking problems and enforce its rules and policies as always.

Tuesday, Sep 12, 2017

Janet Yellen and her unfinished business

Tomorrow Friday, August 25, 2017, Janet Yellen will have a speech at the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Some market participants say it might be her last but historic speech and the end of an outstanding decade in the FED history. Her term will be finished in Feb. 2018, and there is no indication by Trump administration that she will stay.

Dr. Yellen became the President of FED Bank of San Francisco since 2004, selected as the vice chair of the Board of Governors in 2010. She was one of the architects of the recovery plan and when appointed as a chair of FED for four years term in Feb. 2014, she was fully aware of the state of the economy and had a clear and predefined agenda to lead the central bank.

She is a confident assertive “New-Keynesians” economist with a strong background and impressive resume. I wrote her biography in the Persian language printed in Tehran- “Donye-Eghtesad” newspaper in Jan. 2014.As she announced from the start, she gave priority to labor market over price stability and maintained an open, transparent, and flexible approach leading the monetary policies. She has been able to improve the labor market and keep the interest rate under 2% which is the target rate.

In January 2009, the banking supervision committee (BASEL) reported the result of its research on the roots and causes to 2008 financial crisis to G20 financial and banking authorize along with 17 recommendations to do for a sustainable and healthy global system. This historical report showed that the human greed did not let the supply/demand approach work properly as it claims on paper. The report was basically saying that all three sections of financial industry namely Banking, Insurance, and Securities had been taking advantage of the grey areas and flaws of old and obsolete twentieth century regulations and deregulations in early years of 2000, and in some areas, lack of rules for new financial products such as Credit Default Swaps, and Hedge Funds.

Making the long story short, FED has implemented the” “BASEL III” recommendations and successfully upgraded and strengthened the US financial and banking system during the last few years and could survive the tough economic situations. Today the state of growing economy is steady and sustainable. The unemployment rate is 4.3% down from 6.7% when she started, and the core inflation rate is around 1.7% while all indicators show that the economy is growing moderately and continuously. Yellen has led the FED to the best of its performance and transparency during the last four years. FOMC has been willingly explaining its decisions on monetary policy to the public in every meeting and opportunity openly and clearly, believing that the well-informed public could make better decisions and indirectly help to lessen the economic uncertainties. ,

The FOMC in its last minutes has stated that following the assessment of current conditions, inflation, employment and the future outlook, they have decided to keep the rate unchanged (1% -1.25%). They also said that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for more improvement in labor market and return to 2% sustainable inflation rate. They have decided to keep the funds' rate unchanged while they are watching the state of inflation closely and ready to raise if necessary.

However, Dr. Yellen has an “Unfinished Business”. Following the October 2008 decision to buy the bad loans from the banks and financial institutions and agencies, FED started injecting money and credit to financial institutions and banks by many unconventional tools such as paying interest on bank reserves, buying their bad loans and securities so that the financial industry gets back to its normal daily activities. In other words, FED took the bullets for the financial industry and bought around 3.5 trillion of their bad assets during 2009 to 2014 for cash and put these bad long term assets into its own balance sheet. Today the FED balance sheet has 4.5 trillion of assets that is said to be reduced to 2.5 trillion. Who is going to reduce these bad assets in FED and how is it going to be implemented in a way to have the least impact on the economy, inflation and labor market?

FOMC is going to clarify about its balance sheet normalization plan which means reducing the securities assets for 2 trillion dollars gradually.In order to reduce the balance sheet assets, FED has to decrease its accommodative and reinvestment policies which will tighten the economic activities and act like raising the interest rate. So, FED might utilize the process of unwinding the balance sheet as a tool to keep the inflation close to 2% target.

While some analysts say that the central bank balance sheet will be reduced gradually and it will not have an impact on the economy. But many investors reasoning differently, saying that when the FED stops purchasing securities, the demand decreases due to the absence of the main buyer.The architects of recovery process who have inflated the FED balance sheet purposefully to save the economy have surely a plan for “unwinding the Balance sheet” as the last step of the exit strategy.

Yellen has been involved in FOMC monetary policies since 2004 and is one of the main architects of monetary policies during the crisis and recovery for the last 10 years. So, she might be the best economist to finish the job and normalize the FED balance sheet as the last step of recovery or exit strategy with no harm to the state of the economy.

Trump has a list of people who might be willing to take her place such as Gary Cohn his lead economic advisor and others, but he seems to be happy that Yellen has kept the interest rate low and is focused on the labor market.

However, this is a two-way street and Dr. Yellen might not be interested to serve for another term. Because she might not be comfortable with deregulations and other Trumps’ financial agenda, besides she is aware of the tax reform consequences and its huge impacts on fiscal and monetary policy and the economy in general. So if she does not serve for another term for any reason, then the FOMC committee will have 5 trump appointees in 2018 who might change the path of current monitor policies in favor of free market theories.

Tomorrow she will have a speech about financial stability and many expect to hear about her concerns and outlook about the state of the economy in 2018 and afterward.

So if there is going to be a new FED chair in place, then it better be a right choice, otherwise US economy will be seriously at stake in the mid term and ready for another collapse. The end.

Western Protectionism, an opportunity for China

Today January 27, 2017, Theresa May, the Prime Minister of U.K. will meet for the first time with President Trump. This meeting is very important for the western countries and the world. Because if they agree on protectionism policies such as fair trade Vs. free trade, and plan to renegotiate their past free trade treaties with their past allies, then it will be very likely that the Europeans countries exit the E.U. one after another and follow their own version of protection policies.

The Britain populists successfully led the first protectionism movement through social media in July 2016, and Trump as a populist led the second protectionism movement in the US through social media as well in Nov. 2016. So one could conclude that in 2017, all of the general elections in the Europe countries including Netherland, France, Italy, and Germany will vote for populists who stand for protectionism and plan to leave the EU unless the UK parliament do not approve "Brexit"

 If UK Prime minister finds out tomorrow in her meetings that President Trump’s policies are not aligned with  Britain and Europe interests, then the UK Parliament may not approve the Brexit for now based on the chaotic changes happening in the world order currently. A united EU makes it easier for European countries to renegotiate the trades with the United States and save the globalization. The parliament debate on “Brexit” is scheduled for January 31, 2017, 

So, many people are waiting to see the results of the discussions between these two longtime allies, if Britain agrees with protectionism policies in both countries, then Brexit gets approved by its Parliament, and the EU start falling off totally and protectionism policies prevail in the western countries. But if Britain disagrees or is concerned with Trump’s protectionism policies economic views and values, then it needs to disapprove the “Brexit” and stay with EU to have a strong united presence to face and negotiate with the US in many important areas.

In my opinion, if the western world shift from globalization to protectionism, the Asian countries and in particular China will try to lead and promote the globalization by supporting and participating in all kind of free trades treaties with generosity to be recognized the new leader of the world economy.   

-- 

Mahmoud Gonabadi

Ph.D., FCSI, CIM, FMA

Fund & Wealth Manager

اصلاح شیوه پرداخت سود نقدی در بازار سرمایه ایران

مصاحبه با هفته نامه بورس

موضوع: اصلاح شیوه پرداخت سود نقدی

Date: Sep 06, 2015

چهاردهم شهریور ماه 1394

قبل از اینکه به سئولاتتان پاسخ گویم ، اجازه میخواهم نتایج مشاهدات سه ساله خود از وضعیت  بازار سرمایه ایران را به عنوان یک کارشناس و بصورتی خلاصه و کلی مطرح نمایم.

 اگرچه بازار سرمایه کشور در ده گذشته در سه بعد اطلاعاتی و عملیاتی و تخصیص منابع رشد مطلوبی داشته است ، اما به نظر میرسد که پاره ای از قوانین و ایین نامه ها و دستوالعملهای موجود ان که عمدتا در دهه های گذشته  تدوین شده اند با توجه به تحولات تکنولژیک و افزایش سرعت مبادلات و ارتباطات نیازمند بازنگری وتطبیق با شرایط موجود میباشند تا راه رسیدن به بازاری کارامد و قانونمند و جذاب هموارتر شود و سرمایه گذاران خارجی نیز رغبت بیشتری به بازار سرمایه ایران نشان دهند.

به این عقیده بازار سرمایه کشوردارای دو دسته مشکلات است که تاثیر زیادی بر رفتار بازار داشته و مانع از رشد کمی و کیفی  و همه جانبه ان میگردند. طبقه اول مشکلاتی هستند که ریشه فرهنگی دارند و رفع این مشکلات نیازمند زمان و اموزش همه جانبه تمام مشارکت کنندگان در بازار است  که هریک بتوانند نقش خود را بدرستی درک کنند و اجرا نمایند که جزییات ان مورد بحث فعلی ما نیست .اما طبقه دوم مشکلاتی هستند که برخی بسادگی قابل حل و نیازمند زیر ساخت و بستر سازی نیستند.  انشاله به تدریج یکایک این مشکلات کوچک و قابل حل را متواضعانه و برگرفته از تجربیات بازارهای غربی به جامعه هوشمند و جوان مالی و بالاخص بازار سرمایه تقدیم خواهم نمود.

اولین مشکل ساده و قابل حل وجود اشکال درچگونگی توزیع سود نقدی به سهامداران است.  واریز سود نقدی سهامداران به حسابهای بانکی انها نادرست است و میباید به حساب انها در کارگزاریهایشان واریز شود. به بیان دیگر جمع اوری سود نقدی سهامداران باید توسط کارگزاران صورت گیرد تا سهامداران خرد و کلان  دچار سردرگمی و اتلاف وقت برای جمع اوری سود سهام خود در میان بانکهای مختلف نشوند و پول از بازار سرمایه بدون دلیل خارج نشود.وجوه حاصله در بازار سرمایه متعلق به بازار سرمایه است.

تشکر میکنم و سئوالات شما را به شرح ذیل پاسخ گفته ام.

هفته نامه بورس: شیوه کنونی واریز سود سهامداران چه اشکالاتی دارد؟

پاسخ:واریز سود نقدی سها مداران به حسابهای بانکی آنان  اساسا نادرست است . این روش حقوق "بازار سرمایه"  را تضییع میکند و سود حاصله در بازار را از او میگیرد. اینکه حاصل کار "بازارسرمایه" را "بازار پولی "  جمع آوری میکند نقض غرض است و به بازار سرمایه از هر جهت و در تمام ابعاد صدمه میزند.

مسئله روش پرداخت سود نقدی به ظاهر کوچک است و در عرض چند هفته میتواند اصلاح شود. اما تاثیران بر تمام ابعاد بازار سرمایه بتدریج نمایان خواهد شد و یک گام به جلو در کارامدی بازار خواهد بود.روش فعلی دارای مشکلات عدیده است که میتوان به چند مورد ذیل اشاره مشخص نمود:

·         خروج غیر منطقی و بدون توجیه  حجم بزرگی از نقدینگی بازار سرمایه در قالب سود تقسیم شده  سالیانه و واریز ان به "بازار پولی" یا شبکه غیر متمرکز بانکی  که درصد عمده ای از ان به بازار مصرف هدایت میشود.

·         سرگردانی سرمایه گذارحقیقی و اتلاف وقت در جمع اوری سود از بانکهای متعدد وتضییع احتمالی حقوق  او منجر به بی علاقگی سهامداربه سود نقدی میشود واو را به معامله گری و سفه بازی سوق میدهد

·         شفافیت و کیفیت توزیع سود نقدی شرکتها را کاهش میدهد و به کارامدی و چرخه عملیاتی بازار سرمایه  صدمه جدی میزند

اشکالات زیاد هستند و این مطلب را طولانی و از حوصله خارج میکنند . به این عقیده ، شیوه کنونی دارای هیج توجیحه منطقی و اقتصادی نیست. من اطمینان دارم با بلاغت روز افزون بازار این شیوه دیر یا زود متوقف میشود و روش پیشنهادی بکار گرفته خواهد شد. اما زمان یابی مسئولین در اجرای سریع تر ان گام مهمی درجهت  توسعه بازار سرمایه در این مقطع زمانی است. من مطمئن هستم که اهالی بازار سرمایه  همگی برای بالغ شدن و حفظ حقوق این  بازار همدلی و همزبانی خواهند داشت.   

هفته نامه بورس: خیلی از کارشناسان به شیوه کنونی واریز سود ایراداتی وارد می‌کنند و می‌گویند باید تغییر کند؛ چه امکانات و زیرساخت‌هایی برای این کار لازم است؟ (تغییر شیوه کنونی)

پاسخ: هم اکنون برخی کارگزاران جمع اوری سود نقدی سهامداران خاص خود را به وکالت از طرف انان انجام میدهند. زیرا واقعیت ان است که ارایه این خدمات  نیاز به بستر سازی و زیر ساخت ندارد و هم اکنون برای مشتریان خاص در حال اجراست و باید به تمام سرمایه گذاران تعمیم یابد.

اگر کارگزاران خدمات جمع اوری سود نقدی سرمایه گذاران خود را بر عهده بگیرند ، یک مسئله بسیار پراهمیت در کارامدی بازار به سادگی حل شده است. به بیان دیگر یک تغییر کوچک در چگونگی پرداخت سود نقدی تاثیری اهرمی بر ابعاد بازار سرمایه خواهد گذاشت.

هفته نامه بورس:از دید شما چرا شرکت‌ها برای تغییر شیوه کنونی رغبتی نشان نمی‌دهند؟

پاسخ :گرچه انجام چنین امری موجب میشود که طرف حساب شرکتها در رابطه با سود نقدی ،کارگزاران باشند که دارای شخصیت حقوقی و قدرت جمعی هستند که طبعا این اتفاق مورد پسند برخی شرکتها نیست. زیرآنها را مجبور میسازد که در پاسخگویی و پرداخت بموفع مطالبات سهامداران دقت و نظم بیشتری داشته باشند و احیانا متحمل هزینه های مختلفی از جمله هزینه فرصت شوند. دلیل دیگر بی میلی انان به تغییر شیوه توزیع سود میتواند نگرانی انان در نظارت بیشتر بازار بر شیوه عمل انها هنگام پرداخت سود نقدی باشد. به هر حال هنوز مدیران زیادی در میان شرکتهای پذیرفته شده عام وجود دارند که در بسیاری مواقع بدون دلیل از ارایه اطلاعات طفره میروند و روند بازار سرمایه و فرهنگ ان هنوز برایشان کاملا جا نیفتاده و قابل هظم نیست.

 به این عقیده مدیران واقع بین و هوشمند و علاقه مند به بازار سرمایه در میان شرکتها نیز  بسیارند و از شیوه صحیح  توزیع سود نقدی استقبال خواهند نمود و از ان به عنوان یک فرصت در نشان دادن توانایی در پرداخت بموقع تعهدات خود استفاده خواهند نمود.

هفته نامه بورس: گفته می‌شد که شرکت‌ سپرده‌گذاری مرکزی می‌تواند برای یکجا کردن سود سهام و واریز آن به حساب سهامداران نقش داشته باشد. اما تا به حال در شرکت سپرده‌گذاری اقدامی نشده، از دید شما به عنوان کارشناس چرا این اتفاق رخ نداده است؟ (البته خود شرکت سپرده‌گذاری اعلام کرده زیر ساخت این کار را فعلا ندارد.)

پاسخ:به این عقیده مسئله واریز سود نقدی به حساب انان نزد کارگزاریها به هیج وجه پیچیده و غامض نیست و نیاز به زیر ساخت و درگیر نمودن شرکت سپرده سرمایه گذاری ندارد.کارگزار به وکالت از طرف سرمایه گذار سود نقدی را جمع اوری میکند. به بیان دیگر سرمایه گذارفرم استانداردی را امضا میکند و به کارگزار خود وکالت میدهد که حقوق و مطالبات او را از شرکتها جمع اوری نماید.

اینکه خدمات جمع اوری سود نقدی سهامداران توسط کارگزاریها چگونه باید جبران شود مسئله ای دیگر است که به این عقیده و با توجه به هزینه بالای "معاملات برخط " نمیباید به سرمایه گذار تحمیل شود.

هفته نامه بورس: - شیوه پرداخت سود سهامداران در خارج از ایران چگونه است؟

پاسخ:سود نقدی بسیاری از شرکتهای بازار های پیشرفته در جهان هر سه ماه یکبار به حساب انان نزد کارگزاریهایشان واریز میشود و سرمایه گذار هرگز نگران جمع اوری سود و اتلاف وقت خود نیست. ارائه این خدمت توسط کارگزاریها جز لاینفک قراداد کارگزاری است

هفته نامه بورس: این شیوه چه مزایا و معایبی دارد؟

پاسخ:گرچه هر روش و یا شیوه ای طی زمان و به تدریج  عیب یابی میشود و اصلاح  و تعدیل میگردد و با شرایط تکنواژیکی و زمانی منطبق میگردد. اما اساسا مسئله ای به نام چگونگی واریز سود نقدی در غرب وجود ندارد . واریز سود نقدی به حساب سرمایه گزار در بازار سرمایه  مسیر منطقی دریافت سود سهامداران است و بر ان ایرادی مترتب نیست. مهمترین مزیت  واریز سود نقدی به حساب سرمایه گذار در بازار سرمایه ان است که به گردش وجوه در بازار پیوستگی میدهد و از خروج بی دلیل سرمایه از بازارسرمایه و ورود ان به جامعه مصرف جلوگیری میکند. مسئله ای کوچک که حل ان  تاثیری سیستمی بر ارکان و اجزا عملیاتی بازار سرمایه کشور خواهد گذاشت وکارامدی بیشتر اطلاعاتی و تخیص بهتر منابع را بدنبال خواهد داشت.

- هفته نامه بورس: این پیشنهاد هم وجود داشته که واریز سود سهام از طریق کارگزاری‌ها هم پیگیری شود نظرتان در این باره چیست؟ آیا این شیوه عملی است؟

پاسخ:روش اصلح همین است که خدمات جمع اوری سود نقدی سهامداران به کارگزاریها واگذار شود. به این عقیده نیز جمع اوری سود نقدی توسط کارگزاریها نیز بسیار سهل و ساده است و بهترین روش انجام کار است. درگیر نمودن سایر موسسات و شرکتها از جمله" شرکت سپرده سرمایه گذاری" کار را مشکل میکند و در ماموریت شرکت سپرده سرمایه گذاری و دستور کار فعلی ان نمیگنجد

هفته نامه بورس: تغییر شیوه پرداخت سود سهام چه تاثیری در بازار سرمایه دارد؟

پاسخ:تغییر شیوه توزیع سود نقدی تاثیری اهرمی برهمه ابعاد بازار سرمایه خواهد گذاشت. این تاثیرات در کوتاه مدت و میان مدت نمایان میشوند.

·         حجم عظيمي از وجوه نقدي كوچك و بزرگ به بازار سرمايه برميكردد و احتمال سرمايه كذاري مجدد  این وجوه فراهم میاید و آن بخش از کاهش قیمت سهام  که ناشی از تقسیم سود نقدی شرکتها ست را  تا حدود زیادی جبران میکند.

·         در بعد "عملیاتی" بازار را کارامد تر میکند و چرخه سرمایه گذاری را کامل مینماید. در بعد ا"طلاعاتی " شفافیت بیشتری به کیفیت نوزیع سود شرکتها و بهنگامی پرداخت مطالبات سهامداران خرد و کلان میبخشد و شرکت ها را به شفافیت بیشتر در سیاست های تقسیم سود نقدی ترغیب و تدبیر میکند و در بعد "تخصیص بهتر منابع " نیز به کارامدی بازار کمک میکند. زیرا سهامداران و بازار به سرمایه گذاری در سهامی که سود خود را بموقع  پرداخت میکنند اقبال بیشتری نشان میدهند و طبعا منابع بیشتری را جذب میکنند.

به همبن سیاق شاید بتوان مزایای متعدد دیگری را در جزییات برشمرد، زیرا جمع اوری سود اشخاص حقیقی وسرمایه گذاران کوچک از شرکتهای پراکنده در سطح شهر ها و استان ها مشکلی عیان و غیر قابل انکار است و راه حل ان بسیار ساده  است که خدمات جمع اوری سود نقدی باید به کارگزاران خوب بازار سرمایه سپرده شود که انها نیز از خروج سرمایه از بازار خود راضی نیستند و مطمئنا میوانند این خدمات را به خوبی ارایه دهند. Sep. 06. 2015

محمود گنابادی

Ph.D.  , FCSI

Wealth Manager