Western Protectionism, an opportunity for China
Today January 27, 2017, Theresa May, the Prime Minister of U.K. will meet for the first time with President Trump. This meeting is very important for the western countries and the world. Because if they agree on protectionism policies such as fair trade Vs. free trade, and plan to renegotiate their past free trade treaties with their past allies, then it will be very likely that the Europeans countries exit the E.U. one after another and follow their own version of protection policies.
The Britain populists successfully led the first protectionism movement through social media in July 2016, and Trump as a populist led the second protectionism movement in the US through social media as well in Nov. 2016. So one could conclude that in 2017, all of the general elections in the Europe countries including Netherland, France, Italy, and Germany will vote for populists who stand for protectionism and plan to leave the EU unless the UK parliament do not approve "Brexit"
If UK Prime minister finds out tomorrow in her meetings that President Trump’s policies are not aligned with Britain and Europe interests, then the UK Parliament may not approve the Brexit for now based on the chaotic changes happening in the world order currently. A united EU makes it easier for European countries to renegotiate the trades with the United States and save the globalization. The parliament debate on “Brexit” is scheduled for January 31, 2017,
So, many people are waiting to see the results of the discussions between these two longtime allies, if Britain agrees with protectionism policies in both countries, then Brexit gets approved by its Parliament, and the EU start falling off totally and protectionism policies prevail in the western countries. But if Britain disagrees or is concerned with Trump’s protectionism policies economic views and values, then it needs to disapprove the “Brexit” and stay with EU to have a strong united presence to face and negotiate with the US in many important areas.
In my opinion, if the western world shift from globalization to protectionism, the Asian countries and in particular China will try to lead and promote the globalization by supporting and participating in all kind of free trades treaties with generosity to be recognized the new leader of the world economy.
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Mahmoud Gonabadi
Ph.D., FCSI, CIM, FMA
Fund & Wealth Manager
